Distinguished President of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Academician Vodenicharov,
Excellencies,
Ladies and gentlemen, Dear friends,

It is an honor as a President of the Republic of Macedonia, but also as a university professor to address the esteemed Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. While considering the topics on which I could deliver my lecture, I decided to share with you my views on a common challenge for our countries in the 3rd millennium: migrations and migrants.

Travels, resettlement, migrations are part of the great narrative of human history. The entire planet and mankind are in constant movement. Migrations have contributed to the creation of civilizations but also to the destruction of empires. The Roman Empire collapsed due to the migration of peoples. America was created by the pursuit of happiness. People traveled along with words, ideas, inventions and beliefs. We are all a result of migration. There is no man whose closer or more distant ancestors have not migrated from somewhere. It is almost certain that there is no person whose descendants will not migrate somewhere, in another city, another country, another continent.

However, our relatively short lives do not allow us to perceive and experience this phenomenon in its entirety. As humans, quite naturally, we are bound to "here" and "now", often ignoring the "there" and "yesterday" or "tomorrow". In other words, uncritically, we are bound to the temporary presence, which we tend to accept as a permanent condition.

And yet, history bears witness to a different reality. The political boundaries are permeable, but the natural boundaries are permanent. This is best summed up by the great American strategist Nicholas J. Spykman, who, in 1942, wrote that "Geography is not subject to discretion. It is the most fundamental factor in the foreign policy of states because it is most permanent. Ministers come and go, even dictators die, but mountain ranges stand unperturbed".

In other words, geography affects the migration of peoples, the fate of nations and the future of the world. Geography is the key to understanding migration. But the 20th century exactly was a time of rebellion against geography. It seems that we in Europe and the Balkans have forgotten that the most permanent are not the national boundaries but the natural boundaries.

The European refugee and migrant crisis has reminded us of this valuable lesson. How did this crisis happen?

You remember that the Arab Spring began in 2011. Among the bitter fruits of the Arab Spring were the failed states and ruined societies in the Middle East and North Africa that make up the fiery belt of instability, conflicts, refugees and migrants. Until the Arab Spring, we were shuddered when our territories were illegally passed by several thousand migrants annually. In the first few years of the conflict in Syria, we were concerned about the tens of thousands of refugees annually. In 2012, there were 4,320 migrants. In 2013 - 11,831. In 2014, this route was crossed by 44,057 migrants.2 The zenith was reached in 2015. The Greek island of Lesbos became symbol of the crisis, where thousands of migrants were unloaded who then came to Macedonia.

In October 2015, just in a few hours, there were over 14,000 migrants and refugees at the Greek-Macedonian border in Gevgelija. The population of Gevgelija doubled overnight. I well remember those dramatic moments. At that time, as President and Commander-in-Chief, I visited our southern border. The situation looked desperate. The border of the European Union towards Macedonia was porous. Unable to withstand the pressure of illegal migration, Greece, a member of NATO and the European Union and the Schengen zone, positioned the refugees and migrants at the border line with Macedonia. We were in a paradoxical situation. Macedonia faced the threat coming from the territory of the European Union and NATO.

All this was a reminder that Macedonia and the Balkans are part of the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkan migrant route. According to Frontex, in 2015, more than 885,000 registered migrants and refugees passed through Macedonia and the Balkan route in general.

What contributed to the sharp increase in migrants?

In late 2014 and early 2015, thousands of illegal migrants from Kosovo, massively, by buses, set off to seek a better life in Europe. The mass migration of Kosovo citizens probably attracted the attention of world media that reported live this phenomenon.5 The news reached the Middle East and Africa. The route which was opened by the Kosovo migrants was later used by the refugees and migrants from Syria.

Faced with the threat of illegal migration, the Security Council of the Republic of Macedonia adopted conclusions on national security protection. On August 19, 2015, the Government of the Republic of Macedonia adopted a decision to declare crisis on the southern and northern borders. Already on August 20, a decision was adopted to engage the Army of Republic of Macedonia to provide assistance and support to the Ministry of Internal Affairs in dealing with the crisis situation resulting from the migrant crisis.

While it took Brussels six months to reach consensus on the migrant crisis, we decided to take the matters into our own hands. At that time, the Republic of Macedonia was one of the few sovereign states in Europe that made a decision and implemented that decision by itself.

In October 2015, at our insistence and at the initiative of the countries along the Balkan route, a meeting was convened in an expanded composition of the European Commission with the member states along the route passed by the refugees and migrants. For the first time, all the countries affected by the migrant crisis were at the same table. For the first time decisions were made for us, but also with our
presence and consent.

On November 13, 2015, terrorist attack happened in Paris. Already on November 15 I called the Security Council of the Republic of Macedonia. In just two days the Army managed to place 20 km protective fence. By setting the fence, we managed to regulate the flow at one entry point, the famous border stone 59.9

Imagine the paradox we face. Macedonia, which is not a member of the European Union, protects Europe from the European Union. On 2 March 2016, the European Council President, Donald Tusk, visited Macedonia. We informed him on our plan on migrant wave control. And that is regulation with one entry and one exit point. Our position was that the so called "pipe principle" should be implemented along the
entire Balkan route so that it can be controlled. Brussels followed our plan which implied entry at Idomeni, at the border stone 59, and exit at the Austrian-German border. When this route was established, we could "put valve" and close the Balkan corridor.

With the agreement between the European Union and Turkey of March 18, 2016, this route was closed.

Diplomats and bureaucrats in Brussels felt relieved. But not for long. As soon as the Balkan route was closed, it became obvious that the organizations and individuals involved in the transit of illegal migrants and refugees are very creative and innovative.

Witness thereto is the leaflet that our services found in the refugees, written in Arabic, explaining the new, alternative route: from Greece via Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Poland to Germany. This was reported to the Bulgarian Prime Minister and President who were grateful that we timely warned that the migrant wave will soon splash the Republic of Bulgaria. Macedonian and Bulgarian security services even organized joint exercises and maneuvers at the Macedonian-Bulgarian border to prepare for this challenge. But the migrants did not rest. Many tried to enter Europe by sea from Turkey via Bulgaria and Romania. The border with Turkey is patrolled by 4.500 well equipped persons. At the same time, due to the unfavorable weather conditions and big waves of the sea, the migrants abandoned the route.

However, our Balkan migrant route is not the only one. You will recall that before Lesbos, the European and world headlines were full of articles about Lampedusa. Until 2015, Lampedusa was a tragic symbol of the Central-Mediterranean migrant route.

After the Arab Spring, the order in Libya collapsed and it ceased to be a functioning state. Migrants from the Horn of Africa, from Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia used the territory of Libya to reach Italy, where there are about 170,000 refugees today. In the past 20 years Italy received 4 million migrants. For a few years, it was the dominant route for the arrival of refugees in Europe. By activating this route, unfortunately, the Mediterranean has become known as the graveyard of migrants. According to the report of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) of June 2016, from January 1, 2014, to May 31, 2016, 9,492 people died or are missing. Moreover, 17 of 20 deaths of migrants occurred exactly on the Central- Mediterranean route.

Notwithstanding, the Western-Mediterranean migrant route was active before the Central-Mediterranean. Through this route, from 2000 until now, about 5 million migrants entered Spain, mostly from Morocco, Western Sahara and Algeria.

Despite their differences, these three migrant routes have something in common.

First and foremost, there is a dynamic relationship among them. Once a route is closed, migrants and refugees immediately activate next route.

Second thing in common to these three routes is the source of migrants. All three routes are powered from Africa and Asia. In other words, these three routes are part of the huge migration movements throughout Asia and Africa to Europe.

Third, these routes are multifunctional. The road migration routes coincide with natural air routes. (Map 10: Natural migration17). But natural migration routes are not used only by migrants and the natural world, but also by criminal structures.

Considering that in order to reach Germany from Syria, migrants are ready to pay from 5 to 15 thousand US Dollars, you can imagine the size of that business. According to Europol, last year's earnings from migrants is between 3 and 6 billion US Dollars. Мigrant corridors are not only geopolitical and geostrategic, but there
are corridors of illegal geoprofit. At the beginning of 2016, as part of the Munich Security Conference, I met with the Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani. He noted that most of the criminal structures, who secured the routes for smuggling drugs in recent decades, now deal with smuggling of migrants.

According to UNODC, the Balkan route of drugs to Central and Western Europe begins in the southern and western provinces of Afghanistan. Annually, 1,000 metric tons of opium and 140 metric tons of heroin are smuggled from Afghanistan into Iran. Of these, 80-85 metric tons of heroin are smuggled through the Balkan route to Western Europe. It is estimated that the organized criminal groups that smuggle heroin to the Balkans earn between 600-700 million US Dollars annually.

As the number of refugees increases, the willingness and readiness of the European Union to accept and integrate will decrease. At the same time, the migrant crisis contributed to further tightening of the relations between the states. But the price we will pay for not cooperating is too high. The weaker the cooperation between the states, the stronger the cooperation between the criminals is. Unlike political elites and security services, smugglers in the Balkans have no ethnic, linguistic or religious
prejudice.21

This is just the beginning. In March 2016 I paid an official visit to Egypt. Currently in Egypt there are about 5 million economic migrants. Millions wait at the southern border with Sudan. In general, in the immediate vicinity of the external borders of Europe there are between 20 and 30 million potential migrants. Therefore, it can be said that the migrant crisis is about to begin. All our lives long we will witness refugees and migrants trying to reach Europe. But, it is part of a larger process.

The entire 21st century is characterized by great movement. According to the United Nations, there are about 232 million international migrants and 740 million internal migrants.23 Over 65 million of them are forcibly displaced persons, of whom 21 million are refugees and 10 million are stateless.

In 2014, 54%, or more than half of the population, already lives in urban centers. It is expected that by 2050, 66% of the world population will live in cities. UN Habitat estimates that every week about 3 million people move to the cities.25 Every day, more than 200,000 people are joining the global urban population, which means that the population of the cities around the world increases by more than 2 people every second. The trend of consolidation and connection of cities is unstoppable. All this contributes the cities, particularly the megalopolises, to turn into hubs of diversity.

We can see that there is a regularity. With its standard, lifestyle and opportunities, urban centers in the most developed countries in the world, as magnets, attract the majority of migrants. Quite naturally, the movement is always from poorer to richer regions. From villages to cities. From cities to megalopolises.

For example, the greatest urban growth in the world is in Africa, which is urbanizing 11 times faster than Europe. The same goes to Asia. Every day, 120,000 people migrate to the southeastern and eastern cities of Asia. From 1990 to 2014, in just 24 years, more than one billion people have migrated from the rural areas to the urban Asian centers of the Pacific.

However, this dynamic has been known since time immemorial. The biblical narrative of humanity begins in the Garden of Eden, but ends in the City of New Jerusalem. In other words, the narrative of human history begins in rural, but ends in urban environment. Therefore, despite the romantic dreams of returning to nature stands the reality that we live in an urban century.

Since the dawn of history, urbanization is the rule, while ruralization is exception to the rule, or, as Aristotle wrote, he who has no need to live in the polis or society because he is self-sufficient, must be either a beast or a god.

At the beginning I said that geography affects migration, setting out directions but not the causes of migration. Migration is a consequence of several interrelated factors - economic, environmental, political and security, but also technological. These four factors are deepened and accelerated by globalization.

First are the economic factors that imply escaping poverty and seeking a better life. The gap between the Global North and the Global South is widening. Of the seven billion inhabitants, only one billion lives comfortably. 62 of the richest people on the planet are rich as half of humanity. No wonder that millions of economic migrants, who have no hope of social mobility in their home countries, want to come to Europe.

Second are the environmental factors. Few people know that the Syrian refugee crisis began as ecological migration. Since 2006, there is drought in Syria that made 1.5 million people to migrate from the rural and agricultural areas to the cities.

According to IOM, there are already several million environmental migrants in the world. The number will increase to tens or even hundreds of millions in the next 50 years.

Third are the security factors, violent extremism and terrorism in the failed states. If we compare the situation in the Middle East and North Africa we will see an obvious difference.

The events from the past years created a new map of the Middle East and North Africa. Libya does not exist as a unified state. The war between Shiites and Sunnis divided Yemen into four areas. The situation in the Middle East is chaotic. Iraq can no longer function as a state and is divided into Sunni and Shia. ISIS is trying to conquer part of the territory where the caliphate was. The borders drawn in the desert sand that divided the ethnic, religious and cultural identities, are now deleted and the region restores its natural boundaries.

The political map of Syria resembles a leopard skin. A war of everyone against everyone else is fought to get the control over the pipelines. At present, the territory of ISIS decreases. This means that the migrant route is used by those who lose the battle, such as the foreign terrorist fighters returning from the battlefields in Syria. Only from the Balkans there are more than 1,000 foreign terrorist fighters who were or still are on the battlefields in Syria. 60% of them have already been returned. There are about 140 from Macedonia, 30 of whom have been killed there. This summer, 86 were already returned. 20 are imprisoned in the action called "Cell". The situation is much more critical in Bosnia, where many foreign fighters stayed after the war.

According to the last census in Syria, in 2004, there were 17 million inhabitants.

Now, it is assumed that there are more than 20 million, half of whom are outside of Syria. But only 6% of the 65 million displaced people are treated in Europe. The greatest burden of the migrant and refugee crisis is felt by the countries in the Middle East and North Africa. According to UNHCR, 39% of the displaced persons are temporarily accommodated in the countries of Middle East and North Africa. In Turkey, there are 2.5 million refugees from Syria. In Lebanon, 1.3 million (a quarter of the population of the country). In Iran - 979,000, in Jordan - 1.4 million refugees.

The fourth factor encouraging migration is the technological development. What the railway was for Europe in the 19th century, now is the smart phone for Africa - an engine of social and economic, but I would here add demographic transformation.36 The Middle East and Africa are used by about 123 million smart phones.37 Why is this important? Because millions of potential migrants, asylum seekers have access to the technology that can ease their way to the desired destination.

These and many other secondary factors have contributed to what became known as the European refugee and migrant crisis.

Europe is in constant crisis. In the seventh year of political and economic crisis, the European Union is faced with the migrant crisis. The failure of the institutions for effective governance, solidarity and leadership repeated. These type of activities should be conducted at the supranational level.

While Europe faces constant political, economic and security crises, the Union is entrapped by its own bureaucracy. Instead of situation room where the threats would be managed at a daily basis, the European diplomacy and bureaucracy meets in the panic room in which bureaucratic talks are hold and political declarations are brought. What must be done is extremely unpopular, which makes it democratically impossible to implement. All this suggests that Europe is facing a lack of leadership, responsibility and solidarity in the very Union.

The renowned analyst Claus Offe even speaks of a crisis of the crisis management of the European Union. Until we point to the actor who can help out of the crisis, Europe is not only in crisis but also in a trap. The crisis has paralyzed and silenced the very constructive actors who would be able to work to implement the necessary strategies and changes that can overcome the crisis and prevent its recurrence.

The question is how the European Union can resolve the crisis without crisis management?

And, there are crises at every turn. It is estimated that the chance of Greece to exit the Eurozone in the next 5 years (Grexit) is 60 to 40%. Simultaneously, Brexit is part of the process of re-grouping the forces at the borders of Rimland. Behind this realignment is the Anglo-American naval strategy and Franco-German continental strategy against the growth of the Chinese economy and the Russian war machinery on the borders of Europe. These are the conditions in which in the following 5 years the future European security and defense architecture will be shaped.

Regarding the migrant crisis, in the coming 5 years, we will face two challenges. While the first challenge is to ensure control of the corridors through which migrants are transferred, the second challenge is to ensure control over the free movement of migrants who are already on the Schengen territory. If Brussels still applies bureaucratic measures, then the risk for the survival of the Schengen area will increase.

In terms of security crisis that results of the external threats, the predictions say that Europe will be divided into 2 zones. The Eastern Bloc and the Balkans, which will be under constant military threat from the East and threat of illegal migration through the transit corridor. Western Europe, which will be under constant terrorist threat and threat of illegal migration to the final destinations. While the first zone will be under constant crisis management, the second area will be under a state of emergency.
The military forces will have to regroup to provide support to the civil services in dealing with the threat of terrorism, foreign fighters, border protection and crisis management. Intelligence will have to support the law enforcement authorities in dealing with external and internal threats.

The third challenge is the polarization of the European societies. Nationalist movements will strengthen and apply violent methods and means to protect the identity and character of the national states. The sovereignty of the states will be restored to defend the territory.

The fourth major challenge is the political crises. These aim of these crisis is to bring the countries in a state of tensions. In such tensions the countries would be put off balance. It involves minority governments, grand coalitions with 18 month term and inability to make decisions. The states will be in a state of submission to centers of powers that would exercise their interests.

The fifth challenge is the consequences of failed states and countries in collapse at the boundaries of the NATO South Wing. EU and NATO cannot provide protection of the states of non-military threats. Therefore it can be expected that the states will cooperate bilaterally and will extend their cooperation in their regions in order to deal with threats.

How can we solve this squaring of the circle?

The fact is that the survival of the European Union will depend on crisis management of third countries that are on the corridors and in the operating environment. The countries which were ignored for years will now become vital for its security. These are Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Macedonia, Serbia...

Direct cooperation on issues of common interest will contribute to overcoming the mistrust between the security services. To yield mid and long term results, that cooperation must become a true partnership between the security services of the states in the framework for partnership.

However, in order to be successful, the European Union must do two things.

First, it must de-bureaucraticize. The panic room in which the diplomats and bureaucrats meet should be replaced with a situation room in which crisis management subjects will meet.

Second, the European Union and the other international organizations have to leave the bureaucratic labyrinth and adapt to the reality of the 21st century.

To successfully address these challenges, decision makers must rely on science. Science is to familiarize us with the complex and dynamic reality of the 21st century. From the demographic explosion in Africa and Asia, through the constant migration to the urban centers, to the growing diversity of the cities and megalopolises. Only science and its institutions such as Universities and Academies can prepare the European institutions for the 3rd millennium.

Thank you.